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Update household heat pump awareness over time #149

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merged 10 commits into from
Nov 21, 2024
Merged

Update household heat pump awareness over time #149

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0c2e58c
Add user inputs for heat pump awareness campaign
charlotte-avery Nov 20, 2024
7463a57
Log heat pump awareness over time in model
charlotte-avery Nov 20, 2024
ff32496
Update HP awareness on campaign date
charlotte-avery Nov 20, 2024
9425931
Agents become HP aware when ban in place
charlotte-avery Nov 20, 2024
10b360f
Tidy up code
charlotte-avery Nov 20, 2024
fa4b6f2
Add tests for campaign effects
charlotte-avery Nov 20, 2024
cfabbf5
Remove strict date requirement for campaign
charlotte-avery Nov 21, 2024
adf0b4e
Add test
charlotte-avery Nov 21, 2024
359bc4e
Add correction term to proba
charlotte-avery Nov 21, 2024
11d7580
Run desired job
charlotte-avery Nov 21, 2024
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24 changes: 24 additions & 0 deletions simulation/agents.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -611,8 +611,32 @@ def compute_heat_pump_capacity_kw(self, heat_pump_type: HeatingSystem) -> int:
)
)

def proba_of_becoming_heat_pump_aware_required_to_reach_campaign_target(
self, model
) -> float:
return (
model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness - model.heat_pump_awareness
) / (1 - model.heat_pump_awareness)

def update_heat_pump_awareness(self, model) -> None:

if InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN in model.interventions:
if (
model.current_datetime == model.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
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Is this hard == safe? If user input is say '2028-01-31' will this work?

Maybe a safer one would be model.current_datetime >= model.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date..

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I had to change the logging to implement this. See latest commit.

In summary: we want to say "if the target HP awareness has not been met in the previous timestep (t-1), give a suitable probability of converting agents to becoming HP aware to meet the target at timestep t", however, before the HP awareness was recalculated every timestep (every timestep, HP awareness set to value of zero, then using the line of code in agents.py: model.households_heat_pump_aware_at_current_step += 1 we count the HP awareness in that timstep). Remember, the simulation loops over each agent every timestep. So if you are on agent num. 3 in the loop, the HP awareness is calculated by looking at how many of the 3 agents are heat pump aware so far, and on timestep 5, we see the HP awareness by looking at how many of the 5 agents are heat pump aware so far etc. So we need to store the HP awareness at t-1, to access it at t, so we can convert a suitable number of households to become HP aware to meet the target.

and model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
< model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
and not self.is_heat_pump_aware
):
proba_to_become_heat_pump_aware = self.proba_of_becoming_heat_pump_aware_required_to_reach_campaign_target(
model
)
self.is_heat_pump_aware = true_with_probability(
proba_to_become_heat_pump_aware
)

def make_decisions(self, model):

self.update_heat_pump_awareness(model)
self.update_heating_status(model)
self.evaluate_renovation(model)

Expand Down
11 changes: 11 additions & 0 deletions simulation/model.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -46,6 +46,9 @@ def __init__(
heat_pump_installer_count: int,
heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
annual_new_builds: Optional[Dict[int, int]],
heat_pump_awareness: float,
campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
):
self.start_datetime = start_datetime
self.step_interval = step_interval
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -74,6 +77,9 @@ def __init__(
)
self.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step = 0
self.annual_new_builds = annual_new_builds
self.heat_pump_awareness = heat_pump_awareness
self.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness = campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
self.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date = heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
self.households_heat_pump_aware_at_current_step = 0

super().__init__(UnorderedSpace())
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -269,6 +275,8 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
heat_pump_installer_count: int,
heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
annual_new_builds: Dict[int, int],
campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
):

model = DomesticHeatingABM(
Expand All @@ -288,6 +296,9 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
heat_pump_installer_count=heat_pump_installer_count,
heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate=heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
annual_new_builds=annual_new_builds,
heat_pump_awareness=heat_pump_awareness,
campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date,
)

households = create_household_agents(
Expand Down
3 changes: 3 additions & 0 deletions simulation/tests/common.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -57,6 +57,9 @@ def model_factory(**model_attributes):
"heat_pump_installer_count": 2_800,
"heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate": 0,
"annual_new_builds": None,
"heat_pump_awareness": 0.5,
"campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness": 0.8,
"heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date": datetime.datetime(2028, 1, 1),
}

return DomesticHeatingABM(**{**default_values, **model_attributes})
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