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gutenberg-net.html
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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html>
<body>
<h1> The Gutenberg - Internet analogy </h1>
<p> Based on a <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19727167">HN comment</a>. </p>
<p> There is now a very entertaining <a href="https://gist.github.com/4lhc/c695e70e59a177fd3278c0818ff20842">python3 script at this gist</a>, author 4lhc.</p>
<p>The idea is that there is an analogy between the historical events after the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printing_press#Gutenberg's_press">invention of the printing press</a> and the recent events after the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET">ARPANET</a>.</p>
<p>Based on empirical observations, we propose the hypothesis:</p>
<h2>(Δ t-historic) = (Δ t-today)^(log 5/ log 2) </h2>
<p> where the Δ t-historic is the time in decades from the invention of the printing press and Δ t-today is the time in decades from the opening of the ARPANET. </p>
<p id="arpa"></p>
<input id="numb">
<button type="button" onclick="historic()">Submit</button>
<p id="demo"> </p>
<p id="gut"></p>
<input id="numb2">
<button type="button" onclick="nowtime()">Submit</button>
<p id="demo2"> </p>
<p> Here is a list of interesting correspondences:</p>
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printing_press#Gutenberg's_press">Gutenberg press</a> (1436) - - - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET">ARPANET</a> (1969)</li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety-five_Theses">The Ninety-five Theses by Martin Luther</a> (1517) - - - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Wide_Web">The WWW spreads</a> (1994)</li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company">East India Company</a> (1600) - - - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google">Google moves to Mountain View</a> (2003)</li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company#Expansion">East India Company had 23 factories</a> (1647) - - - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google">Google buys Youtube</a> (2006)</li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_rule_in_India">East India Company rule in India</a> (1757) - - - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google#2012_onward">Google buys Waze and DeepMind Technologies</a> (2013-2014)</li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd%27s_Coffee_House">Lloyd's Coffee House</a> (1686) - - - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin">Bitcoin</a> (2009) </li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leibniz%E2%80%93Newton_calculus_controversy">Leibniz-Newton calculus controversy</a> (1711) - - - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_access">Open Access fashion</a> (2009) </li>
<li> [proposed by 4lhc] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Rebellion_of_1857"> First major uprising against the East India Company</a> (1857) - - - <a href="https://futurism.com/the-byte/google-started-ethics-board-killed-protests">Google kills its AI ethics board after employee protests</a> (2019) </li>
</ul>
<p> Predictions: if there is anything serious about this analogy then we should observe some other analogies </p>
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Stock_Dividend_Redemption_Act_1873">East India Stock Dividend Redemption Act</a> (1873) - - - Google declines (2020)</li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annus_Mirabilis_papers">Einstein' Annus Mirabilis</a> (1905) - - - First great scientific advance after the dark period of baby-boomers (2021)</li>
<li> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printing_press#Gutenberg's_press">ARPANET</a> (1969) - - - the Net takes a new direction, freed from the bad influence of the old generation influencers (2024)</li>
</ul>
<script>
var t_gutenberg=1436;
var t_arpanet=1969;
var c_low = Math.log(2) / Math.log(5);
var c_high = Math.log(5) / Math.log(2);
document.getElementById("arpa").innerHTML = "Please input a year after " + t_arpanet + ":";
document.getElementById("gut").innerHTML = "Please input a year after " + t_gutenberg + ":";
function historic() {
var t, u, text;
t = document.getElementById("numb").value;
if (isNaN(t) || t < t_arpanet) {
text = "Input not valid";
} else {
u = t_gutenberg + 10 * Math.pow((t - t_arpanet)/10 , c_high);
u = Math.floor(u);
text = u + "";
}
document.getElementById("demo").innerHTML = text;
}
function nowtime() {
var t, u, v, text;
t = document.getElementById("numb2").value;
if (isNaN(t) || t < t_gutenberg) {
text = "Input not valid";
} else {
u = t_arpanet + 10 * Math.pow((t - t_gutenberg)/10 , c_low);
v = u - Math.floor(u);
v = 1 + Math.floor(v * 12);
u = Math.floor(u);
text = "year " + u + " month " + v;
}
document.getElementById("demo2").innerHTML = text;
}
</script>
</body>
</html>