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<div class="container">
<a class="navbar-brand" href="index.html">COVID-19 Portal <span class="d-none d-md-inline"><span class="divider"> | </span><span class="subtext-brand">Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases</span></span><span class="subtext-brand d-md-none"> | (CEID)</span><span class="subtext-brand d-none d-md-inline">, University of Georgia</span></a>
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<li class="dropdown">
<a href="#" class="dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown" role="button" aria-expanded="false">
Tracking
<span class="caret"></span>
</a>
<ul class="dropdown-menu" role="menu">
<li>
<a href="tracker.html">Tracker: Cases, Deaths & Hospitalizations (World, US states, US counties)</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="maps.html">Maps of Spread (World, US, China)</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="wastewater-athens.html">Wastewater Surveillance in Athens, GA</a>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<a href="forecast.html">Forecast</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="nowcast.html">Nowcast</a>
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<a href="#" class="dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown" role="button" aria-expanded="false">
Epidemic Characteristics
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<li>
<a href="context.html">COVID-19 in Context</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="parameters.html">Epidemic Characteristics (Global & US)</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="reff-outside.html">Effective Reproduction Number outside China</a>
</li>
</ul>
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<a href="#" class="dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown" role="button" aria-expanded="false">
Models & Research
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<a href="stochastic.html">Stochastic Model for Wuhan (China)</a>
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<li>
<a href="stochastic-GA.html">Stochastic Model for Georgia (USA)</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="university-model.html">Model for University Reopening</a>
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<li>
<a href="spatial-us.html">Spatial Model for US Counties</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="spatial-china.html">Spatial Model for China</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="us-importation-risk.html">Model of Importation Risk for the US</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="final-size.html">Probability of Widespread Transmission</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="early-intervention.html">Effect of Early Intervention</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="mass_testing.html">Effect of Mass Testing</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="suppression.html">Suppression without Distancing</a>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<!--<a href="news.html">News</a>-->
<a href="index.html#news">News</a>
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<a href="data.html">Data</a>
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<li>
<a href="about.html">About</a>
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<div id="header">
<h1 class="title toc-ignore">CEID COVID-19 - Home</h1>
</div>
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<h2 class="lead">
The COVID‑19 Portal is a resource for researchers, policymakers, and the public that provides tracking, modeling, and analysis of the ongoing COVID‑19 pandemic.
</h2>
<h4 class="lead">
Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases <a href="https://www.ceid.uga.edu" target="_blank">(CEID)</a> Coronavirus Working Group<br>in partnership with the <a href="https://publichealth.uga.edu/" target="_blank">College of Public Health</a><br> University of Georgia
</h3>
<a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" href="#news" role="button">News & Updates</a>
</h2>
<br> <small>Information for UGA students and staff: <a href="https://coronavirus.uga.edu/" target="_blank">coronavirus.uga.edu</a></small>
</p>
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<!-- <div class="container centered"><h2>Nowcasts: Estimates of current outbreak size</h2></div> -->
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<h2>
Wastewater surveillance in Athens, GA
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<p><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lipplab-uga/covid_wastewater_lipplab_athens/master/good_legend.png" style="width:450px; margin-left:50px;"/></p>
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<small>To better understand the outbreak of COVID‑19 on a local level, we are monitoring wastewater samples from water reclamation facilities in Athens, Georgia. Wastewater surveillance is an emerging tool for monitoring disease outbreaks. Coupled with clinical surveillance, it can be used to estimate the level of viruses circulating in local population. Samples are collected weekly and tested to detect the disease-causing virus, SARS‑CoV‑2. Taken together with clinical surveillance, wastewater surveillance is intended to inform public health decisions.</small>
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<div id="webinar" class="section level3">
<h3>Webinar</h3>
<p><img src="images/InfectousDiseases_Twitter_UIDP_March_2_2021.jpg"/
alt="Webinar: Infectious Disease Intelligence: Predicting the Next Pandemic. John Drake, Presenter"></p>
<p>Infectious Disease Intelligence: Predicting the Next Pandemic<br />
John Drake</p>
<p>UIDP (University Industry Demostration Partnership)<br />
March 24, 2021, 12:00 PM-1:00 PM ET (Free)<br />
<a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" role="button" href="https://web.cvent.com/event/58f4cdcd-c52e-4cac-90a6-b65f2a7a9b81/summary" target="_blank">Register</a></p>
<p>Can we predict the emergence and spillover of infectious diseases like Ebola or COVID-19? Can we develop an infectious disease warning system that is analogous to weather forecasts, that pinpoints the origin and path of disease spread?</p>
<p>In this free webinar presented by UIDP, John Drake will describe the surveillance tools used to understand how interactions between humans and pathogenic reservoir-species may lead to spillover events. He’ll also discuss the dynamical models that researchers use once an outbreak has been reported to understand how an infectious disease spatially spreads.</p>
<p><img src="images/GIDIC_horizontal_FC.png" alt="Global Infectious Disease Intelligence Consortium (GIDIC)" width="50%" style="float:right;"/></p>
<p>Drake will also introduce the Global Infectious Disease Intelligence Consortium (GIDIC), which brings together leaders in academia, federal agencies, industry, and NGOs to discuss the challenges that pandemics create and how they can be collectively solved.</p>
</div>
<div id="op-ed-by-ceid-director-john-drake-and-jonathan-m.-davis" class="section level3">
<h3>Op-ed by CEID Director John Drake and Jonathan M. Davis</h3>
<p><strong>Act now to prevent overwhelming hospitals</strong></p>
<p>In an op-ed in the <em>Atlanta Journal-Constitution</em>, CEID Director Dr. John Drake and ER doctor Jonathan M. Davis have called for immediate statewide interventions to avoid hopsiptals in Georgia becoming overwhelmed by surging cases of COVID‑19.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ajc.com/opinion/opinion-act-now-to-prevent-overwhelming-hospitals/OTKTFFMY55E2JB6QG2FE47XU6U/" target="_blank">Opinion: Act now to prevent overwhelming hospitals.</a> Guest column. <em>Atlanta Journal-Constitution,</em> January 29, 2021</p>
</div>
<div id="john-drake-on-science-technology-in-the-biden-administration" class="section level3">
<h3>John Drake on science & technology in the Biden administration</h3>
<p><strong>The Top Six Things The Biden Administration Should Do About Science & Technology</strong> November 10, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>CEID Director John Drake writes about the significant challenges that the incoming president must address, ranging from the COVID‑19 pandemic to restoring trust in science. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/11/10/the-top-six-things-the-biden-administration-should-do-for-science--technology/?sh=1f5a6bf77637" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="face-masks-could-prevent-50-million-covid19-cases-in-the-us" class="section level3">
<h3>Face masks could prevent 50 Million COVID‑19 cases in the US</h3>
<p>October 9, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>Universal face masking would significantly reduce the herd immunity threshold. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/10/09/face-masks-could-prevent-50-million-covid-19-cases-in-the-us/" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="on-herd-immunity" class="section level3">
<h3>On herd immunity</h3>
<p>September 26, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>A lot of Americans have been infected with SARS‑CoV‑2. Extrapolating from a new study suggests that the number may be as high as 60 million. Unfortunately, herd immunity is still a long way off. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/26/60-million-americans-have-been-infected-with-sars-cov-2-but-the-us-is-still-a-long-way-from-herd-immunity/" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="risk-of-catching-covid19-while-flying" class="section level3">
<h3>Risk of catching COVID‑19 while flying</h3>
<p>September 23, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>Investigation of a cluster of SARS‑Cov‑2 cases on a commercial airliner helps quantify the risk of in-flight transmission. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/23/the-risk-of-catching-covid-19-while-flying/?sh=44e149ee16f4" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="covid-19-interventions-have-all-but-stopped-the-spread-of-flu" class="section level3">
<h3>Covid-19 interventions have all but stopped the spread of flu</h3>
<p>September 21, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>Thanks to masks, social distancing and other measures adopted since March, far fewer people in the U.S. are getting infected with the flu compared to previous years. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/21/interventions-meant-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-have-all-but-stopped-the-spread-of-flu/?sh=156f94e076f0" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="how-long-will-your-immunity-last" class="section level3">
<h3>How long will your immunity last?</h3>
<p>September 15, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>Disucussion of a new study in Nature reporting on the duration of protective immunity in four human coronaviruses related to SARS‑CoV‑2. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/15/youre-a-covid-19-survivor---how-long-will-your-immunity-last/?sh=2a2dc7291427" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="protecting-against-airborne-transmission-of-covid19" class="section level3">
<h3>Protecting against airborne transmission of COVID‑19</h3>
<p>September 4, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>This is the second part of a discussion about airborne transmission of COVID‑19. The piece considers how to protect against airborne transmission and what it might mean for the epidemiology of COVID‑19. Read online at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/04/protecting-against-airborne-transmission-of-covid-19/#3bd422003bac" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="risky-work-sars-cov2-infections-among-frontline-health-care-workers" class="section level3">
<h3>Risky work: SARS-‑CoV‑2 Infections Among Frontline Health Care Workers</h3>
<p>September 1, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6935e2.htm" target="_blank">CDC report</a> quantifies the risk of infection for health care workers caring for COVID‑19 patients. Read a discussion by John Drake at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/01/risky-work-sars-cov-2-infections-among-frontline-health-care-workers/#b738e9673370" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="is-covid19-airborne" class="section level3">
<h3>Is COVID‑19 airborne?</h3>
<p>August 31, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>John Drake discusses the evidence for airborne transmission of SARS‑CoV‑2 at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/31/is-covid-19-airborne/#6bfcc9334131" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="two-studies-show-how-to-control-the-spread-of-coronavirus" class="section level3">
<h3>Two studies show how to control the spread of coronavirus</h3>
<p>August 28, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>Two recent CDC reports document the dsuccessful use of “bubbles” for containing local spread of COVID‑19. CEID Director John drake discusses the findings at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/28/two-studies-show-how-to-control-the-spread-of-coronavirus/#7fc58e7a7898" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="the-science-behind-campus-coronavirus-outbreaks" class="section level3">
<h3>The science behind campus coronavirus outbreaks</h3>
<p>August 21, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>John Drake discusses COVID‑19 on College Campuses and the Science of Epidemics Among College Students. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/21/the-science-of-campus-outbreaks/#41bcb0fb6893" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="the-science-of-reopening-can-testing-students-work" class="section level3">
<h3>The science of reopening: Can testing students work?</h3>
<p>August 17, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>As universities across the nation reopen, CEID Director John Drake discusses testing programs instituted by various universities, as well as models developped at Yale and elsewhere to assess the effectiveness of these programs. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/17/the-science-of-campus-reopening-can-testing-students-work/#6c08a3502c7a" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="five-approaches-to-the-suppression-of-sarscov2-without-intensive-social-distancing" class="section level3">
<h3>Five approaches to the suppression of SARS‑CoV‑2<br>without intensive social distancing</h3>
<p>August 3, 2020</p>
<p><img src="images/suppression-outreach.png" /></p>
<p>CEID researchers have <a href="suppression.html">modeled</a> the effectiveness of generalized and targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions in controling the spread of SARS‑CoV‑2. Generalized policies include limiting large gatherings, wearing face masks, hand washing, enhanced sick leave policies, limiting large gatherings, and other behavioral changes not involving intensive social distancing or shelter-in-place orders. Targeted methods include active case finding, contact tracing, immunity certification, and quarantine. Because non-pharmaceutical policies have disrupted local and state economies, understanding the effectiveness of less disruptive interventions to control SARS‑CoV‑2 is increasingly important. Researchers developed two modeling frameworks to study the effectiveness of targeted strategies in combination with generalized interventions. Results indicated that the four targeted interventions studied are effective. However, generalized methods such as wearing a face mask and reduced densities were determined to significantly improve the effectiveness of targeted interventions.</p>
<p>See <a href="suppression.html">covid19.uga.edu/supression</a> for complete details and a link to the preprint.</p>
</div>
<div id="surge-in-deaths-associated-with-covid19" class="section level3">
<h3>Surge in deaths associated with COVID‑19</h3>
<p>July 18, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>COVID‑19 deaths have now begun to surge following the earlier surge in case reports. John Drake discusses the ten-day average lag between case reporting and deaths and what it means for predicting daily deaths in the near future. Using the <strong>lagged Case Fatality Rate</strong> (deaths today over cases reported ten days ago), the number of of deaths over the next ten days can be estimated from daily case reports over the <strong>previous</strong> ten days. For the US, Drake predicts new deaths will hover around 1000 per day, ±500. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/18/surge-in-deaths-associated-with-covid-19/#5e6cb1dd79d0" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="four-reasons-why-coronavirus-cases-are-increasing-but-deaths-arentyet" class="section level3">
<h3>Four reasons why coronavirus cases are increasing<br>but deaths aren’t—yet</h3>
<p>July 8, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com</p>
<p>John Drake discusses the discrepancy between numbers of COVID‑19 cases and deaths in the current resurgence of COVID‑19. Drake explores four possible explanations: time lag, improved treatment, increased testing, and changing age distribution. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/08/four-theories-about-why-americas-second-covid-wave-isnt-quite-as-deadly-as-the-first-yet/" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="john-drake-joins-forbes.com-as-a-contributor" class="section level3">
<h3>John Drake joins Forbes.com as a contributor</h3>
<p>July 7, 2020</p>
<p>CEID director John Drake has <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/07/why-ecologists-study-infectious-diseases-and-what-we-can-learn-about-public-health-by-studying-nature/" target="_blank">joined Forbes.com as a contributor</a>. His column will address general infectious disease ecology and epidemiology, as well as COVID‑19. Read his introductory column: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/07/why-ecologists-study-infectious-diseases-and-what-we-can-learn-about-public-health-by-studying-nature/" target="_blank">Why Ecologists Study Infectious Diseases And What We Can Learn About Public Health By Studying Nature</a>, published July 7.</p>
</div>
<div id="op-ed-in-the-hill-by-ceid-director-john-drake" class="section level3">
<h3>Op-ed in The Hill by CEID Director John Drake</h3>
<p><strong>America needs a national center for infectious disease intelligence</strong><br />
June 21, 2020 | by John M. Drake | The Hill</p>
<p>In an opinion piece published in The Hill, CEID Director John Drake made the case that the time is now to establish a national center for infectious disease intelligence to monitor trends and provide real-time interpretation of outbreak data through modeling, biostatistics, and data science.</p>
<p>Read the complete opinion at <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/503793-america-needs-a-national-center-for-infectious-disease-intelligence" target="_blank">TheHill.com</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="john-drake-on-debriefing-the-briefing-with-major-garrett" class="section level3">
<h3>John Drake on “Debriefing the Briefing” with Major Garrett</h3>
<p>May 7, 2020</p>
<p>CEID Director John Drake discusses how COVID‑19 modeling informs public policy and mitigation efforts on Debriefing the Briefing with CBS News Washington Correspondent Major Garrett.</p>
<p>Listen the podcast <a href="https://tinyurl.com/yc7m85ax" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
</div>
<div id="john-drake-feature-article-on-fivethirtyeight" class="section level3">
<h3>John Drake feature article on FiveThirtyEight</h3>
<p><strong>Why One Expert Is Still Making COVID‑19 Models, Despite The Uncertainty</strong><br />
April 17, 2020 | by John M. Drake | FiveThirtyEight.com</p>
<p>Read the full article on <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-one-expert-is-still-making-covid-19-models-despite-the-uncertainty/">FiveThirtyEight.com</a>.</p>
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<div id="new-tracker-for-cases-deaths-and-hospitalizations" class="section level3">
<h3>New tracker for cases, deaths and hospitalizations</h3>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ceid.uga.edu" target="_blank">Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID)</a> and the <a href="https://publichealth.uga.edu" target="_blank">College of Public Health (CPH)</a> at UGA have created a <a href="tracker.html">new interactive tracker</a> that allows users to track the spread of COVID‑19 both in the US and worldwide. The tracker allows users to explore cases, hospitalizations, deaths and number of tests for every US state, as well as cases and deaths worldwide. Users can adjust the plots by choosing total or daily numbers, absolute or normalized values, and calendar date versus date since a certain number of cases occurred. The data comes from the Covid Tracking Project and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.</p>
</div>
<div id="op-ed-by-ceid-director-john-drake" class="section level3">
<h3>Op-ed by CEID Director John Drake</h3>
<p><strong>Dr. John Drake urges swift, decisive action to curb spread of COVID‑19.</strong></p>
<p>In an op-ed in the <em>Atlanta Journal-Constitution</em>, CEID Director Dr. John Drake has called for immediate and decisive intervention to slow the spread of COVID‑19. Based on a study of government intervention in China following the initial outbreak of COVID‑19 in Wuhan, CEID researchers found a very strong correlation (90%) between how early a major intervention was imposed in a province and the ultimate severity of the outbreak there. The results show that early action yields critical gains, with every delay of 3.8 days leading to a tenfold increase in cases.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/opinion/opinion-now-the-time-act-coronavirus/AwELZ1Fm9GMZVJsW6rsHJL/" target="_blank">Opinion: Now’s the time to act on coronavirus.</a> Guest column. <em>Atlanta Journal-Constitution,</em> March 13, 2020</p>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">November 4, 2020</small><br> CEID has released its model of spatial spread for US counties. The model looked at county populations, case counts, non-pharmaceutical interventions, commuting flows, flight volumes and Facebook’s Social Connectedness Index to build a model that describes how the risk of the outbreak spreading to each county changed over time during the first six months of the pandemic. The model will be useful in the future, when COVID‑19 is eliminated from some counties, as a tool to predict risk of re-introduction. <a href="spatial-us.html">covid19.uga.edu/spatial-us</a>
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<h4>CEID’s stochastic forecast model released</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">September 22, 2020</small><br> CEID has released its stochastic model for the US. The model takes into account human actions that are difficult to quantify (e.g., wearing of face masks), in addition to human mobility quantified through cell phone data. The new model fits reported cases, deaths, movement data, and a temporal trend in transmission capturing other human behaviors. The model projects cases, hospitalizations and deaths six weeks out under three social distancing scenarios. <a href="forecast.html">covid19.uga.edu/forecast</a>
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<h4>CEID’s statistical model on COVID‑19 ForecastHub</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 31, 2020</small><br> CEID’s statistical forecasting model is now included on the <a href="https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org" target="_blank">COVID‑19 ForecastHub</a>, a CDC-coordinated record and visualization of forecasts by modeling teams from around the globe. All forecasts on the ForecastHub are updated weekly. Information about the model (referred to on ForecastHub as “CEID-Walk”) can be found <a href="https://github.com/e3bo/random-walks" target="_blank">here</a>.
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<h4>Importation risk</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 30, 2020</small><br> CEID researchers have produced a model of the risk of COVID‑19 importation via each US port-of-entry airport, and the risk of imporation to the US from each country currently flying to the US. Results are updated monthly on the COVID‑19 Portal <a href="us-importation-risk.html">here</a>
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<h4>Wastewater surveillance</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 25, 2020</small><br> UGA’s College of Public Health is now monitoring wastewater samples from reclamation facilities in Athens, Georgia, in order to help anticipate outbreaks and estimate the level of SARS‑CoV‑2 circulating in the population. Results are updated weekly on the COVID‑19 Portal <a href="wastewater-athens.html">here</a>
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<h4>Model for university reopening</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 15, 2020</small><br> COVID‑19 Portal now includes a model for SARS‑CoV‑2 transmission on a university campus. The model estimated imported cases at the start of a semester and considers both generalized interventions and testing programs. Model details <a href="wastewater-athens.html">here</a>
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<h4>Tracking US county-level COVID‑19 cases and deaths</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">June 11, 2020</small><br> CEID’s <a href="tracker.html">COVID‑19 Tracker</a> has been updated to include cases and deaths at the county level for each US state. <a href="stochastic-GA.html">covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA</a>.
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<h4>Behavioral stochastic model for Georgia</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">June 2, 2020</small><br> CEID’s updated stochastic model for the COVID‑19 outbreak in Georgia now accounts for human actions that are difficult to quantify with data (e.g., wearing of face masks), in addition to human movement quantified through cell phone data and other sources. The new model fits reported cases, deaths, movement data, and a temporal trend in baseline transmission capturing other human behaviors. The model projects cases, hospitalizations and deaths six weeks out under three social distancing scenarios. <a href="stochastic-GA.html">covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA</a>.
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<h4>Nowcast of outbreak size</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 27, 2020</small><br> The <a href="nowcast.html">Nowcast</a> of the COVID‑19 outbreak size by US state has launched on the COVID‑19 Portal. The Nowcast is an estimate of the total number of unreported cases by state. Nowcasts are estimated for the 50 states and for the US as a whole, and are calculated from COVID‑19 case reports and fatalities. <a href="nowcast.html">covid19.uga.edu/nowcast</a>
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<h4>Stochastic model for Georgia</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 15, 2020</small><br> The COVID‑19 Portal now includes a stochastic model for the COVID‑19 outbreak in the state of Georgia. <a href="stochastic-GA.html">covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA</a>.
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<h4>Effect of early intervention</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 15, 2020</small><br> CEID has released an anlysis of the <a href="early-intervention.html">effect of early intervention</a> on its COVID‑19 Portal. The analysis of intervention timing and outbreak size by province in China clearly demonstrates the importance of early intervention.
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<h4>Estimating final outbreak size</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 3, 2020</small><br> The CEID COVID‑19 Portal now includes a model that provides insight into the <a href="final-size.html">final size of the ongoing COVID‑19 outbreak</a>. The model estimates global outbreak sizes by probabilistically incorporating the sparking of new local outbreaks across the globe. The model estimates outbreak sizes for best-case, worst-case and average-case scenarios under a range of assumptions, including how fast local containment efforts improve.
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<h4>Assessing the impact of mass screening and testing</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 21, 2020</small><br> The CEID Coronavirus Working Group has released an assessment of the impact of symptom-based <a href="mass_testing.html">mass screening and testing intervention</a> (MSTI) during novel disease outbreaks to help understand how current mass testing and screening may be affecting the COVID‑19 outbreak in China.
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<h4>Estimates of case fatality rate added</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 20, 2020</small><br> Estimates of the case fatality rate <span class="math inline"><em>C</em><em>F</em><em>R</em></span> have been added to the <a href="parameters.html">Epidemic Characteristics</a> page. The <em>case fatality rate</em> is the death rate among those with COVID‑19 disease.
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<h4>Effective reproduction number outside China updated</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 20, 2020</small><br> Estimates of the <em>effective reproduction number</em> <span class="math inline"><em>R</em><sub><em>e</em><em>f</em><em>f</em></sub></span> outside of China have been updated to account for heterogeneity in transmission. <span class="math inline"><em>R</em><sub><em>e</em><em>f</em><em>f</em></sub></span> is the average number of secondary infections, taking into account immunity in the population and containment efforts. When <span class="math inline"><em>R</em><sub><em>e</em><em>f</em><em>f</em></sub> < 1.0</span> containment occurs. See <a href="reff-outside.html">R-effective outside China</a> for details.
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<a href="news.html#news-sars-cov-2"><img src="images/2019ncov_Parker/Image-4.jpeg" alt="Artist’s impression: SARS‑CoV‑2 Based on micrographs of SARS and MERS coronaviruses Image credit: Chloe Parker" /></a>
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<h4>Virus causing COVID‑19 disease named “SARS‑CoV‑2”</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 17, 2020</small><br> The virus causing the current outbreak of COVID‑19 disease has been officially named <strong>“Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2” (SARS‑CoV‑2</strong>). SARS‑CoV‑2 is a sister virus to other SARS-CoVs. The new name replaces the informal virus name “2019-nCoV” and is not to be confused with the disease it causes, COVID‑19.
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<h4>Estimating “R Effective” outside China</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 17, 2020</small><br> CEID has developed a method to estimate the <strong>Effecitve Reproductive Number <span class="math inline"><em>R</em><sub><em>e</em><em>f</em><em>f</em></sub></span></strong> for COVID‑19 cases outside of China. This will help answer the question of whether or not COVID‑19 cases outside of China will be contained.
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<h4>Disease renamed COVID‑19</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 11, 2020</small><br> The disease caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus has received its official name from the <a href="https://www.who.int/">World Health Organization</a>. The disease name, <strong>“COVID‑19,”</strong> is a contraction of <strong>Co</strong>rona <strong>Vi</strong>rus <strong>D</strong>isease 20<strong>19</strong>.
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<h4>Announcing the Coronavirus Tracker</h4>
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<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 10, 2020</small><br> The <a href="https://www.ceid.uga.edu">Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID)</a> launches its new <a href="https://covid19.uga.edu">Coronavirus Tracker</a> today. The tracker is the work of CEID’s Coronavirus Working Group, convened to provide timely, data-driven situation awareness about the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak.
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