-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
Copy pathindex.Rmd
614 lines (498 loc) · 34.1 KB
/
index.Rmd
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
---
title: "CEID COVID-19 - Home"
---
</div> <!-- container-fluid main-container -->
<div class="jumbotron homepagebanner jumbotron-fluid">
<div class="container">
<!--<h1 class="display-3"></h1>-->
<h2 class="lead">The COVID‑19 Portal is a resource for researchers, policymakers, and the public that provides tracking, modeling, and analysis of the ongoing COVID‑19 pandemic.</h2>
<h4 class="lead">Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases <a href="https://www.ceid.uga.edu" target="_blank">(CEID)</a> Coronavirus Working Group<br>in partnership with the <a href="https://publichealth.uga.edu/" target="_blank">College of Public Health</a><br>
University of Georgia</h3>
<a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" href="#news" role="button">News & Updates</a></h2><br>
<small>Information for UGA students and staff: <a href="https://coronavirus.uga.edu/" target="_blank">coronavirus.uga.edu</a></small>
</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Dashboard -->
<!-- <div class="container centered"><h2>Nowcasts: Estimates of current outbreak size</h2></div> -->
<!-- <div class="container centered"> -->
<!-- <h2>Stochastic model for Georgia</h2> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!-- <div class="jumbotron jumbotron-fluid"> -->
<!-- ALL STATES MODEL -->
<!-- ALL STATES Figure -->
<!-- <div class="container centered"><h2>Forecast for U.S. States</h2></div> -->
<!-- <div class="row"> -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-8"> -->
<!-- <div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"> -->
<!-- <iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="forecast-landing_page_fig.html" allowtransparency="true"></iframe> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!--end embed-->
<!-- <img src="images/legend-scens-fit.png" style="width:350px; margin-left:50px;"/> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!--end col-->
<!-- end GA MODEL figure -->
<!-- ALL STATES legend + button -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-3"> -->
<!-- <p style="color:black; font-size:medium;"><small>To better understand the potential range of epidemic outcomes in each U.S. State, we developed a stochastic model incorporating regionally specific conditions and calibrated to reported cases and deaths. We explore three social distancing scenarios ranging from increased social distancing to a complete return to normal. The model uses social distancing data and also captures hard-to-measure human behaviors such as wearing facemasks in public. The figure shown here compares three scenarios in four states.</small></p><br> -->
<!-- <a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" href="forecast.html" role="button">Explore all U.S. States →</a> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!--end col-->
<!-- end ALL STATES legend + button -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!-- end row -->
<div class="row">
<!-- US NOWCAST -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-6"> -->
<!-- <div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"> -->
<!-- <iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="USnowcast_plot.html" allowtransparency="true"></iframe> -->
<!-- </div></div> -->
<!-- END US NOWCAST -->
<!-- GA NOWCAST -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-6"> -->
<!-- <div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"> -->
<!-- <iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="GAnowcast_plot.html" allowtransparency="true"></iframe> -->
<!-- </div></div></div> -->
<!-- END GA NOWCAST -->
<!-- <div class="row"> -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-6 text-center"> -->
<!-- <img src="images/nowcast-legend-combined.png" style="width:500px"/> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-6 text-center"> -->
<!-- <a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" href="nowcast.html" role="button">Nowcasts for all states →</a> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!-- Wastewater plot + legend-->
<div class="col-sm-12">
<div class="container centered"><h2>Wastewater surveillance in Athens, GA</h2></div>
<div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9">
<iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="wastewater-athens-plot.html" allowtransparency="true"></iframe>
</div> <!-- end 16by9 -->
</div> <!-- end col -->
</div> <!-- end row -->
<!-- end Wastewater plot + legend-->
<!-- Wastewater caption + button -->
<div class="row">
<div class="col-sm-8">
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lipplab-uga/covid_wastewater_lipplab_athens/master/good_legend.png" style="width:450px; margin-left:50px;"/>
</div> <!-- end col -->
<div class="col-sm-4">
<a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" href="wastewater-athens.html" role="button">Full Details →</a>
</div> <!-- end col -->
</div> <!-- end row -->
<div class="row">
<div class="col-sm-8"><div class="container centered">
<p style="color:black; font-size:medium;"><small>To better understand the outbreak of COVID‑19 on a local level, we are monitoring wastewater samples from water reclamation facilities in Athens, Georgia. Wastewater surveillance is an emerging tool for monitoring disease outbreaks. Coupled with clinical surveillance, it can be used to estimate the level of viruses circulating in local population. Samples are collected weekly and tested to detect the disease-causing virus, SARS‑CoV‑2. Taken together with clinical surveillance, wastewater surveillance is intended to inform public health decisions.</small></p>
</div> </div>
<!-- end Wastewater caption + button -->
</div> <!-- end row -->
<!-- <hr> -->
<!-- <div class="row"> -->
<!-- GA MODEL -->
<!-- <div class="container centered"><h2>Stochastic model for Georgia</h2></div> -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-8"> -->
<!-- <div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"> -->
<!-- <iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="stochastic-fitting-georgia-summaryplot.html" allowtransparency="true"></iframe> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!-- <img src="images/scenarios-legend-simple.png" style="width:350px; margin-left:50px;"/> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!-- end GA MODEL -->
<!-- GA MODEL legend + button -->
<!-- <div class="col-sm-3"> -->
<!-- <p style="color:black; font-size:medium;"><small>To better understand the potential range of epidemic outcomes in the state of Georgia, we developed a model incorporating regionally specific conditions and calibrated to reported cases and deaths. <br><br>We explore three social distancing scenarios ranging from increased social distancing to a complete return to normal.<br><br>The model uses social distancing data and also captures hard-to-measure human behaviors such as mask wearing.</small></p><br> -->
<!-- <a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" href="stochastic-GA.html" role="button">Stochastic Model for Georgia →</a> -->
<!-- </div> -->
<!-- end GA MODEL legend + button -->
</div> <!-- end row -->
</div> <!-- end jumbotron -->
<hr>
<div class="container-fluid main-container" id="news"> <!-- container-fluid main-container -->
<div class="row">
<div class="col-sm-8">
### Webinar
<img src="images/InfectousDiseases_Twitter_UIDP_March_2_2021.jpg"/
alt="Webinar: Infectious Disease Intelligence: Predicting the Next Pandemic. John Drake, Presenter">
Infectious Disease Intelligence: Predicting the Next Pandemic
John Drake
UIDP (University Industry Demostration Partnership)
March 24, 2021, 12:00 PM-1:00 PM ET (Free)
<a class="btn btn-primary btn-sm" role="button" href="https://web.cvent.com/event/58f4cdcd-c52e-4cac-90a6-b65f2a7a9b81/summary" target="_blank">Register</a>
Can we predict the emergence and spillover of infectious diseases like Ebola or COVID-19? Can we develop an infectious disease warning system that is analogous to weather forecasts, that pinpoints the origin and path of disease spread?
In this free webinar presented by UIDP, John Drake will describe the surveillance tools used to understand how interactions between humans and pathogenic reservoir-species may lead to spillover events. He’ll also discuss the dynamical models that researchers use once an outbreak has been reported to understand how an infectious disease spatially spreads.
<img src="images/GIDIC_horizontal_FC.png" alt="Global Infectious Disease Intelligence Consortium (GIDIC)" width="50%" style="float:right;"/>
Drake will also introduce the Global Infectious Disease Intelligence Consortium (GIDIC), which brings together leaders in academia, federal agencies, industry, and NGOs to discuss the challenges that pandemics create and how they can be collectively solved.
### Op-ed by CEID Director John Drake and Jonathan M. Davis
**Act now to prevent overwhelming hospitals**
In an op-ed in the *Atlanta Journal-Constitution*, CEID Director Dr. John Drake and ER doctor Jonathan M. Davis have called for immediate statewide interventions to avoid hopsiptals in Georgia becoming overwhelmed by surging cases of COVID‑19.
<a href="https://www.ajc.com/opinion/opinion-act-now-to-prevent-overwhelming-hospitals/OTKTFFMY55E2JB6QG2FE47XU6U/" target="_blank">Opinion: Act now to prevent overwhelming hospitals.</a> Guest column. *Atlanta Journal-Constitution,* January 29, 2021
### John Drake on science & technology in the Biden administration
**The Top Six Things The Biden Administration Should Do About Science & Technology**
November 10, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
CEID Director John Drake writes about the significant challenges that the incoming president must address, ranging from the COVID‑19 pandemic to restoring trust in science. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/11/10/the-top-six-things-the-biden-administration-should-do-for-science--technology/?sh=1f5a6bf77637" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Face masks could prevent 50 Million COVID‑19 cases in the US
October 9, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
Universal face masking would significantly reduce the herd immunity threshold. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/10/09/face-masks-could-prevent-50-million-covid-19-cases-in-the-us/" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### On herd immunity
September 26, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
A lot of Americans have been infected with SARS‑CoV‑2. Extrapolating from a new study suggests that the number may be as high as 60 million. Unfortunately, herd immunity is still a long way off. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/26/60-million-americans-have-been-infected-with-sars-cov-2-but-the-us-is-still-a-long-way-from-herd-immunity/" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Risk of catching COVID‑19 while flying
September 23, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
Investigation of a cluster of SARS‑Cov‑2 cases on a commercial airliner helps quantify the risk of in-flight transmission. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/23/the-risk-of-catching-covid-19-while-flying/?sh=44e149ee16f4" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Covid-19 interventions have all but stopped the spread of flu
September 21, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
Thanks to masks, social distancing and other measures adopted since March, far fewer people in the U.S. are getting infected with the flu compared to previous years. Read more: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/21/interventions-meant-to-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19-have-all-but-stopped-the-spread-of-flu/?sh=156f94e076f0" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### How long will your immunity last?
September 15, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
Disucussion of a new study in Nature reporting on the duration of protective immunity in four human coronaviruses related to SARS‑CoV‑2. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/15/youre-a-covid-19-survivor---how-long-will-your-immunity-last/?sh=2a2dc7291427" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Protecting against airborne transmission of COVID‑19
September 4, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
This is the second part of a discussion about airborne transmission of COVID‑19. The piece considers how to protect against airborne transmission and what it might mean for the epidemiology of COVID‑19. Read online at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/04/protecting-against-airborne-transmission-of-covid-19/#3bd422003bac" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Risky work: SARS-‑CoV‑2 Infections Among Frontline Health Care Workers
September 1, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
A recent <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6935e2.htm" target="_blank">CDC report</a>
quantifies the risk of infection for health care workers caring for COVID‑19 patients. Read a discussion by John Drake at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/09/01/risky-work-sars-cov-2-infections-among-frontline-health-care-workers/#b738e9673370" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Is COVID‑19 airborne?
August 31, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
John Drake discusses the evidence for airborne transmission of SARS‑CoV‑2 at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/31/is-covid-19-airborne/#6bfcc9334131" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Two studies show how to control the spread of coronavirus
August 28, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
Two recent CDC reports document the dsuccessful use of "bubbles" for containing local spread of COVID‑19. CEID Director John drake discusses the findings at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/28/two-studies-show-how-to-control-the-spread-of-coronavirus/#7fc58e7a7898" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### The science behind campus coronavirus outbreaks
August 21, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
John Drake discusses COVID‑19 on College Campuses and the Science of Epidemics Among College Students. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/21/the-science-of-campus-outbreaks/#41bcb0fb6893" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### The science of reopening: Can testing students work?
August 17, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
As universities across the nation reopen, CEID Director John Drake discusses testing programs instituted by various universities, as well as models developped at Yale and elsewhere to assess the effectiveness of these programs. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/08/17/the-science-of-campus-reopening-can-testing-students-work/#6c08a3502c7a" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Five approaches to the suppression of SARS‑CoV‑2<br>without intensive social distancing
August 3, 2020
CEID researchers have [modeled](suppression.html) the effectiveness of generalized and targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions in controling the spread of SARS‑CoV‑2. Generalized policies include limiting large gatherings, wearing face masks, hand washing, enhanced sick leave policies, limiting large gatherings, and other behavioral changes not involving intensive social distancing or shelter-in-place orders. Targeted methods include active case finding, contact tracing, immunity certification, and quarantine. Because non-pharmaceutical policies have disrupted local and state economies, understanding the effectiveness of less disruptive interventions to control SARS‑CoV‑2 is increasingly important. Researchers developed two modeling frameworks to study the effectiveness of targeted strategies in combination with generalized interventions. Results indicated that the four targeted interventions studied are effective. However, generalized methods such as wearing a face mask and reduced densities were determined to significantly improve the effectiveness of targeted interventions.
See [covid19.uga.edu/supression](suppression.html) for complete details and a link to the preprint.
### Surge in deaths associated with COVID‑19
July 18, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
COVID‑19 deaths have now begun to surge following the earlier surge in case reports. John Drake discusses the ten-day average lag between case reporting and deaths and what it means for predicting daily deaths in the near future. Using the **lagged Case Fatality Rate** (deaths today over cases reported ten days ago), the number of of deaths over the next ten days can be estimated from daily case reports over the **previous** ten days. For the US, Drake predicts new deaths will hover around 1000 per day, ±500. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/18/surge-in-deaths-associated-with-covid-19/#5e6cb1dd79d0" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### Four reasons why coronavirus cases are increasing<br>but deaths aren’t—yet
July 8, 2020 | by John M. Drake | Forbes.com
John Drake discusses the discrepancy between numbers of COVID‑19 cases and deaths in the current resurgence of COVID‑19. Drake explores four possible explanations: time lag, improved treatment, increased testing, and changing age distribution. Read the complete column at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/08/four-theories-about-why-americas-second-covid-wave-isnt-quite-as-deadly-as-the-first-yet/" target="_blank">Forbes.com</a>.
### John Drake joins Forbes.com as a contributor
July 7, 2020
CEID director John Drake has <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/07/why-ecologists-study-infectious-diseases-and-what-we-can-learn-about-public-health-by-studying-nature/" target="_blank">joined Forbes.com as a contributor</a>. His column will address general infectious disease ecology and epidemiology, as well as COVID‑19. Read his introductory column:
<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2020/07/07/why-ecologists-study-infectious-diseases-and-what-we-can-learn-about-public-health-by-studying-nature/" target="_blank">Why Ecologists Study Infectious Diseases And What We Can Learn About Public Health By Studying Nature</a>, published July 7.
### Op-ed in The Hill by CEID Director John Drake
**America needs a national center for infectious disease intelligence**
June 21, 2020 | by John M. Drake | The Hill
In an opinion piece published in The Hill, CEID Director John Drake made the case that the time is now to establish a national center for infectious disease intelligence to monitor trends and provide real-time interpretation of outbreak data through modeling, biostatistics, and data science.
Read the complete opinion at <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/503793-america-needs-a-national-center-for-infectious-disease-intelligence" target="_blank">TheHill.com</a>.
### John Drake on "Debriefing the Briefing" with Major Garrett
May 7, 2020
CEID Director John Drake discusses how COVID‑19 modeling informs public policy and mitigation efforts on Debriefing the Briefing with CBS News Washington Correspondent Major Garrett.
Listen the podcast <a href="https://tinyurl.com/yc7m85ax" target="_blank">here</a>.
### John Drake feature article on FiveThirtyEight
**Why One Expert Is Still Making COVID‑19 Models, Despite The Uncertainty**
April 17, 2020 | by John M. Drake | FiveThirtyEight.com
Read the full article on [FiveThirtyEight.com](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-one-expert-is-still-making-covid-19-models-despite-the-uncertainty/).
### New tracker for cases, deaths and hospitalizations
The <a href="https://www.ceid.uga.edu" target="_blank">Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID)</a> and the <a href="https://publichealth.uga.edu" target="_blank">College of Public Health (CPH)</a> at UGA have created a [new interactive tracker](tracker.html) that allows users to track the spread of COVID‑19 both in the US and worldwide. The tracker allows users to explore cases, hospitalizations, deaths and number of tests for every US state, as well as cases and deaths worldwide. Users can adjust the plots by choosing total or daily numbers, absolute or normalized values, and calendar date versus date since a certain number of cases occurred. The data comes from the Covid Tracking Project and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
### Op-ed by CEID Director John Drake
**Dr. John Drake urges swift, decisive action to curb spread of COVID‑19.**
In an op-ed in the *Atlanta Journal-Constitution*, CEID Director Dr. John Drake has called for immediate and decisive intervention to slow the spread of COVID‑19. Based on a study of government intervention in China following the initial outbreak of COVID‑19 in Wuhan, CEID researchers found a very strong correlation (90%) between how early a major intervention was imposed in a province and the ultimate severity of the outbreak there. The results show that early action yields critical gains, with every delay of 3.8 days leading to a tenfold increase in cases.
<a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/opinion/opinion-now-the-time-act-coronavirus/AwELZ1Fm9GMZVJsW6rsHJL/" target="_blank">Opinion: Now’s the time to act on coronavirus.</a> Guest column. *Atlanta Journal-Constitution,* March 13, 2020
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEMS-->
<div class="col-sm-4">
<div class="card mb-0">
<!-- <a href="https://www.ceid.uga.edu/support/" target='_blank'>Support CEID</a> -->
<div class="card-header">
### Latest Updates
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### US county level spatial model released
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">November 4, 2020</small><br>
CEID has released its model of spatial spread for US counties. The model looked at county populations, case counts, non-pharmaceutical interventions, commuting flows, flight volumes and Facebook's Social Connectedness Index to build a model that describes how the risk of the outbreak spreading to each county changed over time during the first six months of the pandemic. The model will be useful in the future, when COVID‑19 is eliminated from some counties, as a tool to predict risk of re-introduction. [covid19.uga.edu/spatial-us](spatial-us.html)</p>
<!-- <div class="card-link"> -->
<!-- [READ MORE →](news.html#) -->
<!-- </div> -->
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### CEID's stochastic forecast model released
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">September 22, 2020</small><br>
CEID has released its stochastic model for the US. The model takes into account human actions that are difficult to quantify (e.g., wearing of face masks), in addition to human mobility quantified through cell phone data. The new model fits reported cases, deaths, movement data, and a temporal trend in transmission capturing other human behaviors. The model projects cases, hospitalizations and deaths six weeks out under three social distancing scenarios. [covid19.uga.edu/forecast](forecast.html)</p>
<!-- <div class="card-link"> -->
<!-- [READ MORE →](news.html#) -->
<!-- </div> -->
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### CEID's statistical model on COVID‑19 ForecastHub
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 31, 2020</small><br>
CEID's statistical forecasting model is now included on the <a href="https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org" target="_blank">COVID‑19 ForecastHub</a>, a CDC-coordinated record and visualization of forecasts by modeling teams from around the globe. All forecasts on the ForecastHub are updated weekly. Information about the model (referred to on ForecastHub as "CEID-Walk") can be found <a href="https://github.com/e3bo/random-walks" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<!-- <div class="card-link"> -->
<!-- [READ MORE →](news.html#) -->
<!-- </div> -->
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Importation risk
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 30, 2020</small><br>
CEID researchers have produced a model of the risk of COVID‑19 importation via each US port-of-entry airport, and the risk of imporation to the US from each country currently flying to the US. Results are updated monthly on the COVID‑19 Portal [here](us-importation-risk.html)</p>
<!-- <div class="card-link"> -->
<!-- [READ MORE →](news.html#) -->
<!-- </div> -->
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Wastewater surveillance
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 25, 2020</small><br>
UGA's College of Public Health is now monitoring wastewater samples from reclamation facilities in Athens, Georgia, in order to help anticipate outbreaks and estimate the level of SARS‑CoV‑2 circulating in the population. Results are updated weekly on the COVID‑19 Portal [here](wastewater-athens.html)</p>
<!-- <div class="card-link"> -->
<!-- [READ MORE →](news.html#) -->
<!-- </div> -->
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Model for university reopening
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">August 15, 2020</small><br>
COVID‑19 Portal now includes a model for SARS‑CoV‑2 transmission on a university campus. The model estimated imported cases at the start of a semester and considers both generalized interventions and testing programs. Model details [here](wastewater-athens.html)</p>
<!-- <div class="card-link"> -->
<!-- [READ MORE →](news.html#) -->
<!-- </div> -->
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Tracking US county-level COVID‑19 cases and deaths
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">June 11, 2020</small><br>
CEID's [COVID‑19 Tracker](tracker.html) has been updated to include cases and deaths at the county level for each US state. [covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA](stochastic-GA.html).</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-tracker-county)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Behavioral stochastic model for Georgia
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">June 2, 2020</small><br>
CEID's updated stochastic model for the COVID‑19 outbreak in Georgia now accounts for human actions that are difficult to quantify with data (e.g., wearing of face masks), in addition to human movement quantified through cell phone data and other sources. The new model fits reported cases, deaths, movement data, and a temporal trend in baseline transmission capturing other human behaviors. The model projects cases, hospitalizations and deaths six weeks out under three social distancing scenarios. [covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA](stochastic-GA.html).
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-georgia-stochastic-spline)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Nowcast of outbreak size
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 27, 2020</small><br>
The [Nowcast](nowcast.html) of the COVID‑19 outbreak size by US state has launched on the COVID‑19 Portal. The Nowcast is an estimate of the total number of unreported cases by state. Nowcasts are estimated for the 50 states and for the US as a whole, and are calculated from COVID‑19 case reports and fatalities. [covid19.uga.edu/nowcast](nowcast.html)
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-nowcast)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Stochastic model for Georgia
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 15, 2020</small><br>
The COVID‑19 Portal now includes a stochastic model for the COVID‑19 outbreak in the state of Georgia. [covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA](stochastic-GA.html).
</p>
<!-- <div class="card-link"> -->
<!-- [READ MORE →](news.html#news-georgia-stochastic) -->
<!-- </div> -->
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Effect of early intervention
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 15, 2020</small><br>
CEID has released an anlysis of the [effect of early intervention](early-intervention.html) on its COVID‑19 Portal. The analysis of intervention timing and outbreak size by province in China clearly demonstrates the importance of early intervention.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-early-intervention)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM-->
<div class="card">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Estimating final outbreak size
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">March 3, 2020</small><br>
The CEID COVID‑19 Portal now includes a model that provides insight into the [final size of the ongoing COVID‑19 outbreak](final-size.html). The model estimates global outbreak sizes by probabilistically incorporating the sparking of new local outbreaks across the globe. The model estimates outbreak sizes for best-case, worst-case and average-case scenarios under a range of assumptions, including how fast local containment efforts improve.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-finalsize)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM HIDDEN-->
<div class="card hidden">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Assessing the impact of mass screening and testing
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 21, 2020</small><br>
The CEID Coronavirus Working Group has released an assessment of the impact of symptom-based [mass screening and testing intervention](mass_testing.html) (MSTI) during novel disease outbreaks to help understand how current mass testing and screening may be affecting the COVID‑19 outbreak in China.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-masstesting)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM HIDDEN-->
<div class="card hidden">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Estimates of case fatality rate added
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 20, 2020</small><br>
Estimates of the case fatality rate $CFR$ have been added to the [Epidemic Characteristics](parameters.html) page. The *case fatality rate* is the death rate among those with COVID‑19 disease.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-cfr)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS Hidden ITEM-->
<div class="card hidden">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Effective reproduction number outside China updated
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 20, 2020</small><br>
Estimates of the *effective reproduction number* $R_{eff}$ outside of China have been updated to account for heterogeneity in transmission. $R_{eff}$ is the average number of secondary infections, taking into account immunity in the population and containment efforts. When $R_{eff} < 1.0$ containment occurs.
See [R-effective outside China](reff-outside.html) for details.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-cfr)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM HIDDEN-->
<div class="card hidden">
<div class="card-body">
<a href="news.html#news-sars-cov-2"></a>
<div class="card-title">
#### Virus causing COVID‑19 disease named "SARS‑CoV‑2"
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 17, 2020</small><br>
The virus causing the current outbreak of COVID‑19 disease has been officially named **"Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2" (SARS‑CoV‑2**). SARS‑CoV‑2 is a sister virus to other SARS-CoVs. The new name replaces the informal virus name "2019-nCoV" and is not to be confused with the disease it causes, COVID‑19.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-sars-cov-2)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM HIDDEN-->
<div class="card hidden">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Estimating "R Effective" outside China
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 17, 2020</small><br>
CEID has developed a method to estimate the **Effecitve Reproductive Number $R_{eff}$** for COVID‑19 cases outside of China. This will help answer the question of whether or not COVID‑19 cases outside of China will be contained.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-reff-outside)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM HIDDEN-->
<div class="card hidden">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Disease renamed COVID‑19
</div>
<p class="card-text"><small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 11, 2020</small><br>
The disease caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus has received its official name from the [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/). The disease name, **"COVID‑19,"** is a contraction of **Co**rona **Vi**rus **D**isease 20**19**.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-covid-19)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--NEWS ITEM HIDDEN-->
<div class="card hidden">
<div class="card-body">
<div class="card-title">
#### Announcing the Coronavirus Tracker
</div>
<p class="card-text">
<small class="card-subtitle mb-2 text-muted">February 10, 2020</small><br>
The [Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID)](https://www.ceid.uga.edu) launches its new [Coronavirus Tracker](https://covid19.uga.edu) today. The tracker is the work of CEID's Coronavirus Working Group, convened to provide timely, data-driven situation awareness about the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak.
</p>
<div class="card-link">
[READ MORE →](news.html#news-announcing-ncov-tracker)
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!--LINK TO OLDER NEWS-->
<div class="card-footer">
<div class="card-body">>
#### [ALL NEWS →](news.html)
</div>
</div>
<!--END-->
</div>
</div>
<div class="container">
<small><a href="https://www.ceid.uga.edu" target="_blank">The Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID)</a> is a research unit housed in the Odum School of Ecology at the University of Georgia. The mission of the CEID is to bring together social and natural scientists through data science, basic biology, and scientific synthesis.</small>
</div>
</div>